Don’t Panic
Infected Worldwide: 111,287
Deaths Worldwide: 3,892
Infected United States: 565
Deaths United States: 22
Infected New Jersey: 6
Deaths New Jersey: 0
Infected New York: 108
Deaths New York: 0
Deaths Long Island: 0
Well that first entry felt a bit bleak didn’t it? News continues to feel pretty bleak as well. A lot feels like it happened in the just the five days it took me to get to write this entry.
18,000 more infected worldwide, over 500 more in the United States, and New York itself went from 6 to 108.
Five days. That is all it took.
While that backs up what i claimed about the spread of the Coronavirus in my last entry, and while everything i went over is definitely cause for concern, there is actually a lot of good news as well.
It is definitely not time to panic.
To start off i was just guessing at some of the numbers i listed in the first entry based on cursory scannings of the news. The World Health Organization recently said the mortality rate is actually higher than 2% sitting at 3.4% currently. Yet there are a lot of reasons to call that number into question as explained in this article here.
To break it down simply that 3.4% was arrived at by simply taking the number of known infected and calculating the percentage of people who have died. The trouble with that number is it is not clear if they account for the number of people who have recovered and, more importantly, despite having a running tally we have no way of knowing how many people are truly infected.
Experts generally agree the current number of known infected is most likely far lower than how many truly have the Coronavirus. It is possible hundreds of thousands, if not millions more, already have it. While that sounds frightening, it can actually be looked at positively as that drives the mortality rate much lower. In some pockets of population the mortality rate tracks as low as 0.5%, not much higher than the common flu. If that number drops even more it is possible we can see a scenario where the Coronavirus really is indeed no more dangerous than the flu.
On a more personal level as well, children appear to fair exceptionally well against diseases such as this. As this article states as an example, adults are 25 times more likely to die of chickenpox than a child. The Coronavirus appears to be no different and y seem to have a better track record of handling it. Accurate information on this, like everything right now, is still developing, but it is encouraging regardless.
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Babs recently walked into our local supermarket into the middle of full blown pandemonium. This was on March 3rd. She was there to pick up a few things for dinner and in no way expected dozens of people waiting on lines extending down aisles with carts full of toilet paper, bottled water, and hand sanitizer. People were frantic, and there were several arguments taking place simultaneously with one exasperated employee yelling out over the rabble “We are doing the best we can!” All of this was exacerbated by New York’s ban on plastic bags as customers with carts full of groceries were resistant to buying reusable bags and demanding plastic bags instead.
It is this event that directly inspired this blog. I wish i had thought of it sooner. I try and pay attention to what goes on in the world outside my little bubble and i recall reading about the Coronavirus in China as early as January. Even then i knew this one seemed different, this might be the one that gets out and causes problems for everyone. I remember discussing it with coworkers and them scoffing at the idea, and yet here we are today. It would have been telling to document it as early as then.
I am not sure why March 3rd, of all days, is the day the reality of it came crashing down on people, but it wasn’t just in our local supermarket that suddenly everyone seemed to realize this was a problem that wasn’t just going to blow over. Friends, family, coworkers, and social media feeds were all suddenly frazzled by the Coronavirus. It didn’t seem to really exist in the minds of a majority of people until March 3rd. If i had to guess why that was the day it became real it is because that was the day the Fed dropped the interest rate to get ahead of the effect the Coronavirus will undoubtably have on the global economy. I believe this triggered a chain reaction that started with people who understand economics of the situation and then trickled out through everyone else. “This is real, it is here, and we are not going to be able to ignore it any longer.”, is essentially what the Fed told us. Everyone took heed.
Since the 3rd the nation’s general need for toilet paper seems to have balanced out, and bottled water is in abundance. However, hand sanitizer is still hard to come by. That actually makes sense as i don’t believe most people used hand sanitizer on a regular basis before this. I am sure that will eventually work it self out as well. I had to explain this all to my 70-year-old mother who had no clue about much of this and was also in a bit of a panic mode. She heard one of the first confirmed cases on Long Island was a 40-year-old man and immediately called to make sure it wasn’t me. She was able to acquire some hand sanitizer and has mailed it to us. That might sound silly, but it will be useful with the kids. So many people have told me to make sure they are washing their hands and i just have to laugh. Everyone who has said that doesn’t have kids and has no clue that trying to get a 2-year-old and a 4-year-old to do anything is like trying to control a sack full of cats.
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It is time to wrap this entry up before i get into a tangent and ramble on. I did say; however, i would explain why i started this blog and its intent. As i said in the first entry, i fully expect, at some point, myself and all my family members to contract the Coronavirus. This blog serves as a historical record, that i feel could be valid and interesting, of one family’s story before, during, and after, our exposure. Where this will go i have no idea. The story it will tell i also have no idea. It could range from almost nothing to the completely awful. Only time will tell.
I don’t want at all to minimize how serious this all is. As i said at the beginning: be concerned. Also be cautious and take common sense precautions. This is real. With that said; however, once someone does have the Coronavirus, some firsthand accounts say that it is not that bad, not much worse than getting the flu. Also consider this gentleman’s story. He says that it hasn’t been so terrible for him, yet honestly it sounds like he went through a bit of a nightmare. If he can stay upbeat about it after all he went through i think everyone can take a deep breath and do what he says he has been doing: taking it one day at a time.
Thank you for reading.
Here is a helpful article about myths associated with the Coronavirus that is worth the read.
Also we have a TWITTER account and an INSTAGRAM account now as well. These will be used primarily to send updates when there are new entries posted and a few interesting tidbits from time to time. We have one follower on our Twitter feed already. Thank you to our first follower!
-Bob
P.S.: I am well aware that what were dealing with is COVID-19 which is the disease caused by the Coronavirus. However, i am mostly referring to as the “Coronavirus” because that is what it is commonly being referred to by the average person and in the press. So for the sake of avoiding confusion i will continue to do so.
For more information on the Coronavirus and how to protect yourself click HERE.
For more information on the spread of the Coronavirus click HERE and HERE.
